By Evan Zener, Metro Land Pro with RE/MAX Equity Group — Oregon Land Specialist
Something I’ve noticed after working through a lot of land deals: the ones that actually close, that don’t blow up six months in, that don’t leave the landowner starting over, they’re rarely the most exciting ones.
They’re the boring ones.
Here’s why the most exciting offer is often the least likely to close, and what durable offers actually look like.
The Outlier Offer
Let’s say you own a piece of land and you put it on the market. You get five offers. Four of them land in roughly the same range, with a little variation. Then there’s a fifth offer that’s 10 or 15 percent higher than the others.
A lot of landowners see that offer and think: this is the one. But that offer is worth being the most cautious about.
Four serious buyers who know the market, who’ve done their homework, who’ve built their pro formas, all landed in roughly the same place. That’s the market talking. That range is where serious buyers see the value given the risk, the timeline, the entitlement path, all of it.
So what does it mean when one buyer comes in dramatically higher? It’s usually one of three things. One, they haven’t done the math yet and they’re going to figure that out during due diligence. Two, everything has to go perfectly for their model to work. Or three, and this is the most common one, they came in high on purpose just to get the deal locked up, knowing they’ll renegotiate price later once you’re under contract.
Either way, you’re probably not getting that number.
Why Exciting Deals Break
All three of those scenarios tend to end the same way.
If they haven’t done the math yet, they figure it out during due diligence and come back asking for a price reduction. If everything had to go perfectly, something doesn’t, and again, they’re back asking for a price reduction. And if they came in high just to lock it up, coming back to renegotiate price was always the plan.
By the time any of that happens, you’ve already taken the property off the market and lost months of time.
What Durable Looks Like
So what does a durable deal actually look like?
It looks like an offer in the same range as the other serious buyers. It looks like a buyer who can explain exactly how they got to their number: what they’re building, what the risks are, and how they’ve priced them in. A serious buyer can walk you through their logic in plain terms.
It looks like a track record that actually matches your property. Not just “we’ve done a lot of deals,” but deals that resemble yours, in similar markets, at similar scale.
And sometimes it looks like a phased takedown, where the buyer purchases the property in pieces rather than all at once. On larger or more complex properties, that’s often the realistic way to get a deal done without the buyer overextending. It’s not as clean as a single purchase, but a buyer who structures a deal around what they can confidently execute is more likely to see it through.
That’s what durable looks like. Not always exciting, but dependable.
The Reframe
The goal isn’t the highest offer. The goal is the highest offer that actually closes at that price.
Those are very different things. I’ve seen sellers pass on realistic offers chasing a higher number, only for that deal to fall apart. By then the serious buyers had moved on. They purchased other land in the area, built it out, and no longer needed the original property. The market shifted, the demand was gone, and what looked like the conservative offer years earlier turned out to be the best one they were ever going to get.
Need Help?
If you own land and you’re thinking about selling, reach out. I help landowners understand what realistic offers look like for their property and how to evaluate the buyers making them. I’m licensed in Oregon and work with sellers nationwide through a vetted network of land agents, and I stay involved through the entire process, not just the introduction.
Evan Zener — Metro Land Pro with RE/MAX Equity Group
Licensed Real Estate Broker in Oregon
503-208-5298